4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 13

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(:12) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.81 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 13, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model