4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
LA Away

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2023-12-10 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

LA
29.2%
BAL
70.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.106 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • BAL on 7 more days rest than LA
  • LA crossing 3 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

LA 21
–
BAL 28
Projected margin: BAL by 7 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

LA

Tyler Higbee TE Doubtful Neck
Michael Hoecht LB Questionable Knee
Quentin Lake S Questionable Hamstring
Byron Young LB Questionable Knee

BAL

Malik Hamm LB Questionable Ankle
Damarion Williams CB Questionable Ankle
Malik Harrison LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 31
–
BAL 37

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:37 FG LA (5:37) 8-L.Havrisik 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 3 – BAL 0
  • Q1 00:34 TD BAL (:34) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 80-I.Likely for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 3 – BAL 6
  • Q2 12:06 TD LA (12:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – BAL 7
  • Q2 09:48 TD BAL (9:48) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 3-O.Beckham for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 10 – BAL 13
  • Q2 05:06 TD LA (5:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 87-D.Allen for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BAL-0-R.Smith, Face Mask, 8 yards, enforced between downs. LA 16 – BAL 14
  • Q2 01:50 FG LA (1:50) 8-L.Havrisik 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 20 – BAL 14
  • Q2 00:12 FG BAL (:12) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. LA 20 – BAL 17
  • Q3 10:07 FG BAL (10:07) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. LA 20 – BAL 20
  • Q3 05:58 SAF LA (5:58) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson Aborted. 64-T.Linderbaum FUMBLES at BAL 3, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. Penalty on BAL-8-L.Jackson, Illegal Kick/Kicking Loose Ball, declined. LA 22 – BAL 20
  • Q4 11:21 FG BAL (11:21) 9-J.Tucker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. LA 22 – BAL 23
  • Q4 04:47 TD LA (4:47) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-D.Robinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 28 – BAL 23
  • Q4 01:22 TD BAL (1:22) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 28 – BAL 29
  • Q4 00:11 FG LA (:11) 8-L.Havrisik 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 31 – BAL 31
  • Q5 08:07 TD BAL (8:07) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to BAL 24, Center-47-A.Ward. 16-T.Wallace for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 31 – BAL 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (11:47) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to LA 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-A.Trammell to LA 24 for 4 yards (53-D.Phillips).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (5:37) 8-L.Havrisik 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:07) 11-J.Stout punts 47 yards to LA 8, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:06) 42-E.Evans punts 59 yards to BAL 20, Center-47-A.Ward. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 34 for 14 yards (18-B.Skowronek).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 73%

    (1:50) 8-L.Havrisik 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%

    (:12) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:46) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to BAL 13, Center-47-A.Ward. 16-T.Wallace to BAL 23 for 10 yards (6-T.Tomlinson).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 82%

    (10:07) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (6:45) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to BAL 10, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 20 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 49%

    (2:17) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 95%

    (11:21) 9-J.Tucker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:35) 42-E.Evans punts 54 yards to BAL 19, Center-47-A.Ward. 16-T.Wallace to BAL 28 for 9 yards (18-B.Skowronek).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (8:09) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to LA 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-A.Trammell MUFFS catch, and recovers at LA 15.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 93%

    (:11) 8-L.Havrisik 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.