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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 71

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to BAL 13, Center-47-A.Ward. 16-T.Wallace to BAL 23 for 10 yards (6-T.Tomlinson).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model