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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 28

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.46 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP