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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 57

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to BAL 10, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.17 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP