4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 20 at the 43

Los Angeles Rams 22 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.34 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model