Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 22 – Baltimore Ravens 23

(10:35) 42-E.Evans punts 54 yards to BAL 19, Center-47-A.Ward. 16-T.Wallace to BAL 28 for 9 yards (18-B.Skowronek).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model