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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 23 – Los Angeles Rams 22

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to LA 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-A.Trammell MUFFS catch, and recovers at LA 15.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.83 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 63, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP