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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 38

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:04) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short left to 17-K.Osborn to LV 33 for 5 yards (18-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.53 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -2.22 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model