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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
Sunday 2023-12-10 · 16:05 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

MIN
49.9%
LV
50.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • LV defense: -0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • MIN defense: -0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Aidan O'Connell (LV) -0.084 vs Joshua Dobbs (MIN) -0.161 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIN 21
–
LV 22
Projected margin: LV by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

MIN

Theo Jackson S Questionable Illness
Ed Ingram G Questionable Hip

LV

Kolton Miller T Out Shoulder
Brandon Facyson CB Questionable Shin
Kana'i Mauga LB Questionable Knee
Maxx Crosby DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 3
–
LV 0

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 40 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q4 02:00 FG MIN (2:00) 1-G.Joseph 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 3 – LV 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (10:40) 4-A.O'Connell up the middle to LV 46 for 2 yards (97-H.Phillips).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:59) 14-R.Wright punts 59 yards to LV 24, Center-42-A.DePaola. 3-D.Carter ran ob at LV 34 for 10 yards (25-Th.Jackson).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (4:25) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle to LV 46 for 3 yards (24-C.Bynum).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 38%

    (2:15) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to MIN 7, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 4-B.Powell pushed ob at MIN 14 for 7 yards (36-C.Bolton).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 15 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:01) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to MIN 21, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 4-B.Powell to MIN 21 for no gain (19-D.Turner).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 65%

    (7:04) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short left to 17-K.Osborn to LV 33 for 5 yards (18-J.Jones).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 79%

    (5:37) 1-G.Joseph 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 31%

    (4:05) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to MIN 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 14 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 29%

    (1:08) 14-R.Wright punts 43 yards to LV 10, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 3-D.Carter. LV-43-K.Mauga was injured during the play.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:35) 14-R.Wright punts 46 yards to LV 37, Center-42-A.DePaola. 3-D.Carter pushed ob at MIN 32 for 31 yards (42-A.DePaola; 32-T.Chandler). Penalty on LV-34-B.Bolden, Illegal Blindside Block, offsetting, enforced at LV 48. Penalty on MIN-42-A.DePaola, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:37) 14-R.Wright punts 46 yards to LV 16, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 5 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:02) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to MIN 22, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 4-B.Powell to MIN 32 for 10 yards (34-B.Bolden).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 13 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:21) 14-R.Wright punts 49 yards to LV 11, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:21) 6-A.Cole punts 83 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:35) 14-R.Wright punts 59 yards to LV 17, Center-42-A.DePaola. 3-D.Carter to LV 31 for 14 yards (25-Th.Jackson).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:23) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to MIN 5, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 4-B.Powell to MIN 30 for 25 yards (45-J.Johnson).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 56%

    (7:02) 14-R.Wright punts 29 yards to LV 13, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:31) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to MIN 30, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 4-B.Powell to MIN 40 for 10 yards (35-Z.White). PENALTY on MIN-11-N.Thompson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 36. Penalty on MIN-45-T.Dye, Illegal Blindside Block, declined.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (2:00) 1-G.Joseph 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 28 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.41 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 84%

    (:18) (Field Goal formation) 1-G.Joseph punts 14 yards to LV 14, Center-42-A.DePaola. 36-C.Bolton pushed ob at LV 31 for 17 yards (71-C.Darrisaw).