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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 31

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 1-G.Joseph 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.23 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model