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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 52

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to MIN 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.67 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 52, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP