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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 53

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 14-R.Wright punts 43 yards to LV 10, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 3-D.Carter. LV-43-K.Mauga was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.95 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 53, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model