Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 18 at the 83

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 14-R.Wright punts 46 yards to LV 37, Center-42-A.DePaola. 3-D.Carter pushed ob at MIN 32 for 31 yards (42-A.DePaola; 32-T.Chandler). Penalty on LV-34-B.Bolden, Illegal Blindside Block, offsetting, enforced at LV 48. Penalty on MIN-42-A.DePaola, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -3.16 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 83, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model