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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 62

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 14-R.Wright punts 46 yards to LV 16, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.69 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model