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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 76

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 14-R.Wright punts 59 yards to LV 17, Center-42-A.DePaola. 3-D.Carter to LV 31 for 14 yards (25-Th.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.33 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model