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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 42

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 14-R.Wright punts 29 yards to LV 13, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.65 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP