Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 81

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to MIN 30, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 4-B.Powell to MIN 40 for 10 yards (35-Z.White). PENALTY on MIN-11-N.Thompson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 36. Penalty on MIN-45-T.Dye, Illegal Blindside Block, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.68 EP
51% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 81, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model