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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 18

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 1-G.Joseph 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.02 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model