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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 28

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(:18) (Field Goal formation) 1-G.Joseph punts 14 yards to LV 14, Center-42-A.DePaola. 36-C.Bolton pushed ob at LV 31 for 17 yards (71-C.Darrisaw).

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.21 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.41 EP