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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 49

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to MIN 7, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 4-B.Powell pushed ob at MIN 14 for 7 yards (36-C.Bolton).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.22 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model