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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 52

Seattle Seahawks 10 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to SF 17, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.71 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 52, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.85 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model