4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
SEA Away

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2023-12-10 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

SEA
20.9%
SF
79.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Brock Purdy (SF) +0.336 vs Drew Lock (SEA) -0.036 EPA/dropback (SEA starting Drew Lock in place of Geno Smith)
  • SF offense: +0.161 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.111 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • SEA on 3 more days rest than SF

Predicted Final Score

SEA 18
–
SF 29
Projected margin: SF by 11 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

SEA

Frank Clark LB Out Inactive
Jarran Reed DT Questionable Hamstring
Geno Smith QB Questionable Groin
Zach Charbonnet RB Questionable Knee
Kenneth Walker RB Questionable Oblique
Jordyn Brooks LB Questionable Ankle
Tre Brown CB Questionable Heel
D'Wayne Eskridge WR Questionable Ribs

SF

Arik Armstead DT Out Foot
Ross Dwelley TE Out Ankle
Ray-Ray McCloud WR Out Rib
Spencer Burford G Doubtful Knee
Darrell Luter CB Doubtful Hamstring
Elijah Mitchell RB Doubtful Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 16
–
SF 28

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:06 TD SF (14:06) 24-J.Mason right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – SF 6
  • Q1 09:50 TD SEA (9:50) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – SF 7
  • Q1 01:01 FG SEA (1:01) 5-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 10 – SF 7
  • Q2 08:26 TD SF (8:26) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 19-D.Samuel for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 10 – SF 13
  • Q3 02:01 TD SF (2:01) 19-D.Samuel left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 10 – SF 20
  • Q3 00:32 TD SEA (:32) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short middle to 84-C.Parkinson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – SF 21
  • Q4 14:16 TD SF (14:16) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 85-G.Kittle for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-20-J.Love, Defensive Holding, declined. SEA 16 – SF 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:13) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 52 yards to SEA 21, Center-46-T.Pepper. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 29 for 8 yards (89-C.Woerner, 10-R.Bell).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:30) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to SF 8, Center-41-C.Stoll. 10-R.Bell ran ob at SF 8 for no gain.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (4:55) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to SEA 29, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 17 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 91%

    (1:01) 5-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 27%

    (11:20) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to SF 17, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 27%

    (5:23) 4-M.Dickson punts 37 yards to SF 15, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 10-R.Bell.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 43%

    (1:14) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to SEA 8, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-45-D.Flannigan-Fowles.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (14:08) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 12 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:11) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 12 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 62 yards to SF 9, Center-41-C.Stoll. 10-R.Bell to SF 25 for 16 yards (59-J.Rhattigan).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:17) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 13 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 36%

    (3:24) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep middle intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner (92-C.Young) at SF 16. 54-F.Warner to SF 13 for -3 yards. Lateral to 57-D.Greenlaw to SF 29 for 16 yards (11-J.Smith-Njigba). Penalty on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on SEA-14-D.Metcalf, Disqualification, offsetting.