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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to SEA 8, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-45-D.Flannigan-Fowles.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.32 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model