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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 60

Seattle Seahawks 10 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.10 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP