Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 68

Seattle Seahawks 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(6:30) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to SF 8, Center-41-C.Stoll. 10-R.Bell ran ob at SF 8 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.60 EP
61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model