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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 84

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(4:55) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to SEA 29, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.00 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 84, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 42, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP