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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 13-T.Zentner punts 47 yards to MIA 28, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 75, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 32, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model