4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
TEN Away

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Monday 2023-12-11 · 20:15 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 14.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

TEN
24.6%
MIA
75.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.270 vs Will Levis (TEN) -0.032 EPA/dropback
  • MIA defense: -0.154 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • MIA offense: +0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 18
–
MIA 27
Projected margin: MIA by 9 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

TEN

Kristian Fulton CB Out Hamstring
Jeffery Simmons DT Out Knee
Josh Whyle TE Out Knee
Teair Tart DT Questionable Not injury related - personal matter

MIA

Robert Hunt G Out Hamstring
Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Christopher Brooks RB Questionable Knee
Jevon Holland S Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 28
–
MIA 27

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:31 TD MIA (8:31) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short middle intended for 32-T.Spears INTERCEPTED by 92-Z.Sieler at TEN 5. 92-Z.Sieler for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – MIA 6
  • Q2 06:57 TD TEN (6:57) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – MIA 7
  • Q2 00:05 FG TEN (:05) 6-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-13-T.Zentner. TEN 10 – MIA 7
  • Q3 09:38 FG MIA (9:38) 7-J.Sanders 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. TEN 10 – MIA 10
  • Q3 00:12 FG TEN (:12) 6-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-13-T.Zentner. TEN 13 – MIA 10
  • Q4 12:41 FG MIA (12:41) 7-J.Sanders 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. PENALTY on MIA-44-B.Ferguson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. TEN 13 – MIA 13
  • Q4 05:38 TD MIA (5:38) (No Huddle) 31-R.Mostert up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – MIA 19
  • Q4 04:39 TD MIA (4:39) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – MIA 26
  • Q4 02:46 TD TEN (2:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-E.Ogbah]. TEN 19 – MIA 27
  • Q4 01:53 TD TEN (1:53) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 27 – MIA 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:31) 13-T.Zentner punts 47 yards to MIA 28, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 13 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:09) 13-T.Zentner punts 53 yards to MIA 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 48%

    (14:15) 16-J.Bailey punts 33 yards to TEN 9, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 33-E.Garror to TEN 14 for 5 yards (20-J.Bethel).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 84%

    (2:00) 7-J.Sanders 44 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey, RECOVERED by TEN-37-A.Hooker at TEN 10. 37-A.Hooker to TEN 21 for 11 yards (94-C.Wilkins).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:02) 13-T.Zentner punts 45 yards to MIA 31, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:38) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to TEN 10, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 33-E.Garror to TEN 21 for 11 yards (20-J.Bethel).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%

    (9:38) 7-J.Sanders 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:51) 13-T.Zentner punts 50 yards to MIA 9, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 4 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (6:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 50 yards to TEN 35, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 33-E.Garror.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (:12) 6-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-13-T.Zentner.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (12:41) 7-J.Sanders 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. PENALTY on MIA-44-B.Ferguson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 30%

    (10:55) 13-T.Zentner punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 15 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:16) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to TEN 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 33-E.Garror MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-22-E.Campbell at TEN 7.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (2:24) 16-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to TEN 22, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 33-E.Garror to TEN 36 for 14 yards (20-J.Bethel).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 42 for -3 yards (58-H.Landry).