Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

(:38) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to TEN 10, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 33-E.Garror to TEN 21 for 11 yards (20-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.40 EP
58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -2.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model