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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 49

Tennessee Titans 13 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(10:55) 13-T.Zentner punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.97 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model