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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 42

Miami Dolphins 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 16-J.Bailey punts 33 yards to TEN 9, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 33-E.Garror to TEN 14 for 5 yards (20-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.78 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model