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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 44

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(9:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 0-C.Ridley pushed ob at BAL 31 for 13 yards (14-K.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.25 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model