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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2023-12-17 · 20:20 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread -4.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

BAL
57.5%
JAX
42.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.155 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.109 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.012 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 23
–
JAX 20
Projected margin: BAL by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

BAL

Kyle Hamilton S Questionable Knee
Malik Hamm LB Questionable Ankle

JAX

Tyson Campbell CB Out Quadricep
Andre Cisco S Out Groin
Ross Matiscik LS Questionable Back
Jamal Agnew WR Questionable Shoulder
Christian Braswell CB Questionable Hamstring
Ezra Cleveland G Questionable Knee
Tre Herndon CB Questionable Concussion
Walker Little T Questionable Hamstring
Brenton Strange TE Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 23
–
JAX 7

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:26 FG BAL (6:26) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 3 – JAX 0
  • Q2 01:18 TD BAL (1:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 80-I.Likely for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – JAX 0
  • Q3 07:26 TD JAX (7:26) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 39-J.Agnew for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 10 – JAX 6
  • Q4 15:00 TD BAL (15:00) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 35-G.Edwards up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 16 – JAX 7
  • Q4 08:03 FG BAL (8:03) 9-J.Tucker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 20 – JAX 7
  • Q4 06:05 FG BAL (6:05) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 23 – JAX 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to BAL 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 71%

    (3:07) 10-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 61%

    (13:06) 10-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 39%

    (9:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 0-C.Ridley pushed ob at BAL 31 for 13 yards (14-K.Hamilton).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 15 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:21) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to JAX 12, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds. Penalty on JAX-26-A.Johnson, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 12 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 42%

    (4:22) 11-J.Stout punts 33 yards to JAX 10, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 19 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:26) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to BAL 39, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 16-T.Wallace to BAL 42 for 3 yards (20-D.Thomas).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:41) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to BAL 24, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (8:03) 9-J.Tucker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%

    (6:05) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 56%

    (4:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end ran ob at BAL 25 for 13 yards (6-P.Queen).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 13 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (3:24) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 17-E.Engram.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.47 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 76%

    (:30) 35-G.Edwards up the middle to JAX 25 for 5 yards (33-D.Lloyd).