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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 57

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to JAX 12, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds. Penalty on JAX-26-A.Johnson, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.10 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model