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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 19 at the 99

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to BAL 39, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 16-T.Wallace to BAL 42 for 3 yards (20-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -4.36 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.89 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 99, worth -6.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 53, worth -2.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model