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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 7

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 9-J.Tucker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 7, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model