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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 16

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.19 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model