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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 13

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Baltimore Ravens 23

What Actually Happened

(3:24) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 17-E.Engram.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.90 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 13, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP