4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 32

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 10-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.53 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model