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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 52

Chicago Bears 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 16-T.Gill punts 43 yards to CLE 9, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.25 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 52, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.79 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP