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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2023-12-17 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

CHI
41.3%
CLE
58.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE defense: -0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to CLE: Joe Flacco (CLE) -0.081 vs Justin Fields (CHI) -0.169 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CHI 18
–
CLE 20
Projected margin: CLE by 2 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

CHI

Noah Sewell LB Out Knee
Equanimeous St. Brown WR Out Pectoral
D.J. Moore WR Questionable Ankle
Jaquan Brisker S Questionable Groin

CLE

Jordan Kunaszyk LB Out Calf
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo DE Out Pectoral
Ethan Pocic C Out Stinger
Juan Thornhill S Out Calf
Jordan Elliott DT Questionable Concussion
Anthony Walker LB Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Denzel Ward CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 17
–
CLE 20

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 11:04 TD CHI (11:04) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 85-C.Kmet for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – CLE 0
  • Q2 03:54 TD CLE (3:54) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 85-D.Njoku for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – CLE 6
  • Q3 14:01 TD CHI (14:01) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 19-C.Tillman INTERCEPTED by 49-T.Edmunds (53-T.Edwards) at CLE 45. 49-T.Edmunds for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – CLE 7
  • Q3 07:11 FG CHI (7:11) 8-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 17 – CLE 7
  • Q4 12:31 FG CLE (12:31) 7-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CHI 17 – CLE 10
  • Q4 03:18 TD CLE (3:18) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 17 – CLE 16
  • Q4 00:36 FG CLE (:36) 7-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CHI 17 – CLE 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:14) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to CHI 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (10:30) 16-T.Gill punts 34 yards to CLE 45, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-39-J.Blackwell.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 30%

    (8:56) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 30 yards to CHI 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:25) 16-T.Gill punts 55 yards to CLE 23, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-J.Proche pushed ob at CLE 37 for 14 yards (20-T.Homer).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to CHI 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-T.Taylor MUFFS catch, and recovers at CHI 19.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 15 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 22%

    (2:14) 16-T.Gill punts 38 yards to CLE 13, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-J.Proche to CLE 19 for 6 yards (39-J.Blackwell).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:45) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to CHI 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 20%

    (14:12) 16-T.Gill punts 43 yards to CLE 9, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 91%

    (5:56) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass short left to 34-J.Ford to CHI 14 for 5 yards (98-M.Sweat).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:26) 16-T.Gill punts 43 yards to CLE 26, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-J.Proche to CLE 28 for 2 yards (31-Ja.Jones).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:08) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to CHI 2, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 37
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 57%

    (:04) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 6-J.Owusu-Koramoah (0-G.Newsome) [99-Z.Smith] at CLE -4. Touchback.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (14:09) 16-T.Gill punts 45 yards to CLE 34, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-J.Proche to CLE 35 for 1 yard (31-Ja.Jones). PENALTY on CHI-43-D.Gates, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 35.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (11:56) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to CHI 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-T.Taylor pushed ob at CHI 30 for 8 yards (42-T.Fields).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 7 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 87%

    (7:11) 8-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (6:15) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to CHI 37, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 42 for 5 yards (37-Da.Bell).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 19 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (4:44) 16-T.Gill punts 37 yards to CLE 30, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 16 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (2:39) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to CHI 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-T.Taylor MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CLE-43-M.Diabate at CHI 20.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 68%

    (15:00) 1-J.Fields sacked at CLE 33 for 0 yards (29-C.Mitchell).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (12:31) 7-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:42) 16-T.Gill punts 44 yards to CLE 25, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to CHI 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-T.Taylor pushed ob at CHI 33 for 10 yards (30-D.Harmon).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 18%

    (5:25) 16-T.Gill punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 12 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:00) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to CLE 21, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (:36) 7-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.