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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 19

Cleveland Browns 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(5:56) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass short left to 34-J.Ford to CHI 14 for 5 yards (98-M.Sweat).

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.72 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 19, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 29, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model