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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 55

Cleveland Browns 7 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to CHI 2, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.29 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 55, worth -2.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model