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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 20 at the 85

Cleveland Browns 7 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to CHI 37, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 42 for 5 yards (37-Da.Bell).

The Three Options

GO -3.32 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 85, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 43, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model