Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 19 at the 67

Chicago Bears 17 – Cleveland Browns 7

(4:44) 16-T.Gill punts 37 yards to CLE 30, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.77 EP
76% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model