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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 57

Cleveland Browns 7 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to CHI 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-T.Taylor MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CLE-43-M.Diabate at CHI 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.13 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 57, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model