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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 10 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to CHI 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-T.Taylor pushed ob at CHI 33 for 10 yards (30-D.Harmon).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 75, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 32, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model