4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 53

Chicago Bears 17 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(5:25) 16-T.Gill punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.63 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 53, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model