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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 51

Chicago Bears 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 16-T.Gill punts 38 yards to CLE 13, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-J.Proche to CLE 19 for 6 yards (39-J.Blackwell).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.48 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 51, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.84 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model